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Energy Statistical Analysis Seminar and Workshop
Includes Several Real World Hands-On Energy Modeling Examples - A Three-Day Classroom Seminar (CPE Approved)

9 August, 2017 - 11 August, 2017, San Francisco, CA, United States

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DAY ONE:

The Basics of Deterministic vs. Probabilistic Thinking for Energy Applications
  • Basics of data science – Information from Data
  • Descriptive Statistics, Means, Standard Deviations, Distribution Shapes
  • Frequency Distributions and Confidence Intervals
  • Implications of the Empirical Rule, Transformations and Probability

Fundamental Modeling Tools and Simulation
Exercise: Setting up a Monte Carlo Simulation to Evaluate Project Value and Risk

Application: Calculating Value at Risk (VaR)
  • The Linear Method and
  • The Quadratic Method
  • Historic Simulation Method
  • Monte Carlo Method
Exercise: Calculating VaR Using Three Different Methods

Application: Hedging Energy Exposure

  • Understanding the "Greeks"
  • How and when to Hedge
  • Delta Hedging
  • Dynamic Hedging
  • Gamma Hedging

Application: Component Risk Analysis
  • Payoff Diagrams
  • Portfolio VaR Diagram
  • CAPM, RAROC and the Sharp Ratio
  • Calculating Load Following Supply Risk
  • Layered Hedging using Statistical Triggers
Exercise: Customer Migration Model Estimating Migration out of Standard Offer Service
Exercise: Measuring Load Following Supply Risk
Exercise: Measuring Intermittent Renewable Supply Risk

Correlation and Regression Analysis for Maintaining the Competitive Edge
  • Univariate and Multivariate Analysis
  • Hypotheses Testing
  • Testing for Equal Means and Variances
  • Control Charts

DAY TWO:

The Energy Forecasting Toolbox
  • Historical Trend Analysis
  • Univariate Time Series
  • Multivariate Time Series
  • Econometric Models
  • Bayesian Estimation
  • End-Use Models
  • Engineering or Process Models
  • Optimization
  • Network Models
  • Simulation
  • Game Theory
  • Scenarios
  • Surveys
Case Study: Statistical Reports that Everyone Can Understand
Case Study: Benchmarking to Industry Standards- GTS Steel vs. KCPL
Exercise: Building Regressions and Forecasting, PDF’s, CDF’s and Payoff Diagrams
Exercise: Calculating Hedge Ratios, Constructing an Energy Hedge and a Weather Hedge
Exercise: Using Forecasts in Monte Carlo Simulation to Calculate Risk Premium

DAY Three:

Introduction to Real Options Analysis
  • Details of Option Model Implementation
  • Real Options and Net Present Value (NPV) Analysis
  • Estimating Volatility and Uncertainty In Historical Prices
  • Black-Scholes, Binomial Trees, and GARCH Models
  • Geometric Brownian Motion and Mean Reversion
Application: Minimizing Price Risk through Operational Design Flexibility
Application: Real Option Value of Demand Response and the Smart Grid
Exercise: Calculating Volatility
Exercise: Simulating Prices using GBM and Mean Reversion Monte Carlo Models  
Exercise: Valuing Combustion Turbines using Real Options
Exercise: Valuing Gas Storage using Real Options

Event details

PGS Energy Training
9 August, 2017
11 August, 2017
San Francisco
Holiday Inn-Fisherman's Wharf
California
United States
Training Course
ASDE-15972


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